Here is today’s UWU news giving you all the nuggets you need to add to your understanding of events.
Russian losses open-source data set (from Del):
https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=E33161B435D127BA!115352&ithint=file%2cxlsx&authkey=!AIUgFlGIk8-n1hM
UA Supporter merch: https://uasupporter.com/atp
Books
Johnny Pearce books: https://amzn.to/3vv5ZSF
Survival of the Fittest books: https://amzn.to/3TXjp3z
Jonathan MS Pearce books: https://amzn.to/3IbX3sZ
_____
0:00 Start
0:15 Hits/Losses
12:35 Strikes
25:20 Other
_____
Maps often used:
War Mapper: https://twitter.com/War_Mapper
JMSP: https://earth.google.com/earth/d/1TbWO-jdWJ0hJQ9QSvSsQlyh0owI0YTbi?usp=sharing
blog/column: media/jpearce/” target=”_blank”>https://onlysky.media/jpearce/
Merchandise for the A Tippling Philosopher blog network and YouTube channel. shop/ap/49320825″ target=”_blank”>https://www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/49320825
Buy me a coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/GkxsyfQ
Paypal Donate: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/johnnyp76 South Korea:
source
Ukraine have shot down 7 Kinzhal missiles!
Russia's missile stock list doesn't are up!🕺
Thanks JP!
Thanks!
Hey Jonathan, I’ve heard you mention many times now that Russia’s use of less accurate missile’s are responsible for the frequent hits on civilian targets, implying they are missing there intended targets and instead hitting civilian infrastructure. Let us be very clear Russia programmed that missile to hit that cathedral, not some military objective nearby that it simple missed. I understand there less accurate missiles have a pk of 50 meters 50 percent of the time but that is more then enough to insure you hit a few hundred meter long cathedral, mall, hospital, children’s school, etc. By claiming these civilian impacts are due to inaccuracies of the missile you give cover for Russia’s deliberate targeting of civilians.
Eggsalent report, as usual.
The war is so depressing. It is getting harder and harder to watch. Nothing about you Jonathan. Just freaking sad. Slava Ukraine.
Johnathan and team, here is an interesting interview with an Atlantic journalist, it's from CNN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ltc2RaUtKw&t=459s
I think it was Paul, of Combat Veteran Reacts channel, who said that the US military assigns responsibility for its equipment to individual soldiers, and that whoever was responsible for the Doha explosion was held responsible for $100 million and would see his wages garnished for the rest of his life.
Good morning/ afternoon… Yesterday there was a video on YT lasting about 45 mins. showing an almost endless destruction of men and equipment on both sides. So much so that I 'switched channels before the end'.
This is the Now unavailable link…. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vOrvV00bfI
The missile stocks on a Nimitz class boat are larger than Russia's entire supply if your figures are correct. Don't think they are going to be invading Poland ). cheers good info –
Does the use of cluster munitions on the frontline clear the trenches but not in the way intended? Most of the bomblets seem to fall outside the trenches, but given that the russian troops have low moral, the bomblets exploding all around them may "persuades" them to vacate the trenches anyway. And also their use on troops in open ground will be devestating anyway.
6:35 I'm really confused. He's mixed up Russian losses as reported by Ukraine MoD with Ukraine losses reported by Oryx I think?
No. It's not all about mines.
It's all about drones. Think loitering smart mine if that helps. 🙂
Good lost equipment analysis. Oryx is an open database enhancing factual reliability. UMOD is not as concerned with being publicly forthright.
The British couldn't break the irish spirit by bombing Dublin City and starving the people ,Ireland knows how to defeat imperialism, keep strong Ukraine 🇺🇦
11:31 The sign, not the fire, is the real star of that clip.
Classic Russian nonsense. Hilarious.
I think Russia is replacing the artillery with drones from Iran and in house models.
I can't imagine how any army can win a war with their logistics constantly being taken out. I'm glad to see that the situation in the Luhansk area is now stabilized, it looks now as if it was a localized move by the enemy as per RFU. Thanks Jonathan, see you in the next ones.
Great stuff, I love the working together behind the line clearing debris! You are right this bring Ukraine together!
Great update as always !!
I fear they will use all missiles and relay on nukes as deterrent against NATO
If you believe the Ukrainian MOD about Russian losses, you’re going to have to face the fact that Santa is real. I love the Ukrainians but this is really dodgy.
When Crimea has been purged of its high value military assets and military infrastructure, the occupied regions of Donbas, ie. Luhansk and Donetsk, will have to be similarly sanitized. That could be a bit more demanding due to the Russian border flanking the entire length, but it will still have to be done. That means a LOT more precision weapons, ordinance, will be required, with sufficient reach to eliminate the same types of assets and infrastructure there, extending past the Russian border to avoid the Russians using that as a shield for locating hostile activities on the Russian side in the belief that protects them from neutralization. We cannot see how that will be avoidable in the long term, and that emphasizes the problem as to the need for a lot more precision ordinance. There is, of course, no other way to do what has to be done. The Russians have left Ukraine absolutely no choices.
Jonathan, and others…. we would not trust those numbers as to how many missiles Russia had and has. Not at all. There is evidence that Russia has persistently lied about their inventories and about their production capabilities. Grossly understating what they have done and what they can do in some cases. Unfortunately the Western media have been chomping on that Russian bit because it makes them happier to do so. They are infected with a peculiar brand of extreme optimism as to how horribly badly Russia was prepared going into it, and how horribly badly it is doing. That includes horribly badly at military production and at sourcing materials and components for production. Worse yet as to the assumptions that Russia did not build up larger inventories between around 2010 and 2022. Really another incredible assumption that the Russians absolutely love the Western media and others tending to make. So we do not believe it. While we do not know what the actual, real, numbers are, we cannot give much credence to the numbers being tossed around. Russia is very devious, and knows how to create big lies that it wants to create, as well as knowing how to convince much of the rest of the world to swallow those big lies without even digesting them properly. The country that historically built such a huge number of missiles and warheads during the Cold War, as well as every other type of then popular munition inclusive of binary chemical warheads, is very unlikely to have become so absolutely stupid, at the top level, that they would choose to annex Crimea in 2014, without significant preparations for a real war. Then ongoing from there, as to preparing for much worse going forward, despite the very peculiar, and perhaps equally intent on misleading, despite false beliefs about Ukraine resistance, low key invasion of the rest of Ukraine in 2022. Yes they made a mistake if they believed they would not have to escalate to where they are now, or perhaps beyond that level of escalation, in terms of the "Special Operation", but do we really believe they were not prepared for escalation ? It would be absurd to think that they totally ignored that possible scenario even if they gave it a lower than realistic probability. Large military powers, super powers in fact, do not ever make that mistake. They make mistakes, but not that mistake. They always gear up secretly for something larger than they believe is actually going to happen. They have a lot of people who have the sole job of planning for the near to impossible and improbable, just in case it actually happens. Russia is definitely playing its cards very close to its chest, and doing a lot of bluffing, in terms of its efforts to take the jackpot. There is no doubt as to that and they are still doing a lot of bluffing and we believe keeping back some trump cards that they have not yet played. We need to count on that happening as the situation evolves and we need to predict what those plays are likely to be and when they are likely to happen. So we need to keep watching for that. Keeping in mind too that you have to have deeply embedded spies in a country, and those spies have to have security clearances for real access to where no one without can ever go. Not only clearances but access to specific, secret, locations and activities, if you really want to quantify what was going on and what is going on, beneath the thick smoke and highly distortive mirrors game.
It wouldn't surprise me if Russia specifically targeted Odessa's cathedral.
250 k in losses by August 15th🤔. What's your prediction?
So why dont you post Ukrainian losses? Let me tell you why, if the true numbers of Ukrainian casualties are shown to the world, the world will realize the lies being told by the west, USA and Nato…
Western BS propaganda is hilarious of what they say and think about the Russians and Putin, the Western media and officials lie so much to their people they actually believe all the BS that spills from their mouths. I am pretty sure the western media and all the western officials assholes are jealous of all the s.h.i.t that comes from their mouths
So lets look at this situation without emotions taking over for poor old Ukraine.
Russia never wanted this war, but was pushed by USA and Nato since 2014. Putin has warned the in west to stay out of Ukraine, but the west funded and trained the Ukrainian army since 2008 to attack and kill ethnic Russians in the east of Ukraine.
Ukraine Killed 14k ethnic Russians, the ukraine goverment Banned them from speaking their native language, they where treated as 2nd class citizens.
And everytime the west just Ignored Putin and Putin was forced to act to protect his people.
Also the whole thing about Crimea was Nato wanted ro use Crimea as a naval base and supply Ukraine with the Agis missile systems pointing at Russia.
So Putin sent a small army hoping there would be someone at the other end of the negotiating table. There was 3 sets of peace talks last year between march amd april, then Zelensky initialed the peace agreement.
Nato then flew in Borris Johnson that sabotaged the peace talks and gave USA the proxy war they always wanted for the last 30 years with Russia.
If Nato and USA never got involved, never funded or trained the Ukraine army, keep on re supplying Ukriane with weapons, this war would have long been over or would have never even started
So Neither country has officially declared war on each other.
Russia is calling this a SMO, which stands for special military operations.
Putin gave orders to limit infrastructure damage where possible and not to kill civilians.
Russia is not going to invade the whole of Ukraine, thay was never the objective
Russian objectives are to DE- militirise and de nazify Ukraine, keeping the Ethnic Russians save from harm from the Ukraine army
If Russia was at war with Ukraine then the Ukrainian leadership would all have been targets since day 1, any political or military officials would have been high value targets from the get go. Russia would have wiped Ukraine from the map if they wanted to.
So to achieve objective no 1 de-militarise… Set up a 1000km long defensive line in the east of Ukraine 3-4 lines deep. Let the Ukrainians burn through their troops walking in to the security zone, still trying to even reach the first line of defence. Ukraine is burning faster through ammo and reinforcement man power than what they can replace them with with. So the war of attrition is happening Russia is killing 7-10 Ukrainians for 1 Russian killed. It is a matter of time till Ukraine will not be able to sustain what they are doing, Nato is running out of ammunition to supply and Russia is just killing Ukrainians without much effort.
Objective 2, de-nazify Ukraine, sooner or later the people of Ukraine will come to see how their current regime is controlled by the west, and effectively removing the zelensky regime from power and to remain a Neutral country and not joining Nato
Ukraine is 99 percent white.
It continues to amaze me that in 2023, Russia continues to aggressively attack civilians and related infrastructure. Russia still lives in a war mindset that no longer fits modern society. Russia will never win.
sorry jonathan but I feel you are in error in drawing the wrong conclusions here regarding the war in ukraine and the importance of mines. it is unique in that 1 it has been static for years allowing the defences including minefields to be created. 2 air power is not a significant factor for either side. If this was near peer vs nato. then look to what happened in the gulf wars, but amplified. Command and control forsr, then air force negated, Eirthe through f22 raptor, or strikes againse the assets on the ground. SEAD missions by F 35 eliminating the SAM threat, (the russian systems have cllearly performed well below western expectations. then its a jdam for everything that resembles been man made with steel. lancet wont be an issue as there wil be very little near the from to attack. you have MLRS. The uS has around 1000 launchers, if they arnet sowing defensive minefields in the path of advance they will be targeting concentrations of troops and vehicles. . you dont need a front line that your opponent can actively target. let them come on to you, attrit then counter. Or destroy in place
Rus doesn't have "LOTS" of missiles left. Remember, when they started the war against civilian infrastructure last fall they were sending 50-100 per attack.
Problem may be that there is actually no video/photos of some/many equipment hits. I guess getting photos of crocodiles he shoots is a minor priority to the guy in the swamp up to his ass in crocodiles….
I don't think it is that strange there is no visual confirmation of lot of these artillery pieces being hit by Ukraine. They are a long way behind the lines. A lot of them are being targeted by counter battery radar, not drones. Even without images, Ukraine still could have good reason to believe they are out (e.g. they stop firing, radio intercepts, etc).
MH 17 seems to be justice in a strange way buks and gurkin ! 🙏
29:08 Actually the conclusion of Bomber Mafia is the firebombing of Japan worked and Japan capitulated without being invaded. Russian can't muster that level of destruction by conventional means. The US took destroyed entire cities in a night and probably killed millions of civilians.
The Ukrainian military is going to lose equipment and troops this is war and it is expected. The difference between the Russian and Ukrainian military is the Russian military doesn't really care about its troops. The Ukrainian military does everything that they can to keep the troops as safe as possible. We can't expect the Ukrainian military not to have equipment and troops damaged and killed. The United States and NATO need to give the Ukrainian military what they are asking for and stop pussyfooting around and getting troops killed by not giving them longer range missiles and an air frame for front line defense. The United States would never send troops in without air support and for us to ask the Ukrainian military to do so is wrong and every person that is killed on the front line because of the lack of air support is blood on their hands. It is great for the support that has been given but it is almost too little too late. Glory to Ukraine
Cluster munitions are a god send.. They're not only effective in a wider dispersal meaning more accuracy in inaccuracies, but they effectively save use of other more targeted munitions and can be used in eyeing in (walking in) more precise artillery, furthermore accruing their stockpiles..
Damn, they were very busy yesterday and last night. We can only hope and pray that we will keep seeing these numbers or higher. I hate to see anyone lose their life, but they have a chance to save their own lives by surrendering and if they don't they know what can happen. Slava Ukraine
Does anyone know many troops did the so-called Wagner Group, which allegedly was 2 Division strong at the outset of this completely unjustified war, lose before it retreated to Belarus? I think Prizhogen’s rants are the best evidence that Russia is losing this war.
AFU counts light mortars. OSK doesn't
6:22 mortars are included in MOD numbers. Oryx only includes longer range artillery.
Thanks, Johnathan. Good to see you.